Bank systemic risk and macroeconomic shocks: Canadian and U.S. evidence

This paper investigates how banks, as a group, react to macroeconomic risk and uncertainty; more specifically, it examines the relationship between bank systemic risk and changes and disruptions in economic conditions. Adopting the methodology of Beaudry et al. (2001), we introduce a new estimation procedure based on EGARCH to refine the framework developed by Baum et al., 2002, Baum et al., 2004, Baum et al., 2009 and Quagliariello, 2007, Quagliariello, 2009, and we analyze the relationship in the current industry context—i.e., in the context of market-based banking. Our results confirm that banks tend to behave more homogeneously vis-à-vis macroeconomic uncertainty. In particular, we find that both the cross-sectional dispersion of loans-to-assets and the cross-sectional dispersion of non-interest income share shrink during slow growth episodes, and particularly during financial crises, when the resilience of the banking system is at its lowest. More importantly, our main findings indicate that the cross-sectional dispersion of loans-to-assets has increased in the last decade, whereas the cross-sectional dispersion of non-interest income share appears to be more volatile and sensitive to macroeconomic shocks.     

创业投资企业优惠政策的思考

本公司位于高新技术产业开发区,是一家具有一般纳税人资格的生产销售企业,由公司出资设立一家创业投资企业,公司100%控股;收购公司持有的GN公司30%和JX公司31.82%的股份,而GN公司为高新技术企业且未上市;有效的运用我国执行的创业投资企业税收优惠政策:创业投资公司投资于未上市中小高新技术企业2年以上(含2年),可按其对中小高新技术企业投资额的70%抵扣该创业投资企业的应纳税所得额;符合条件的居民企业之间的股息、红利等权益性投资收益为免税收入;可以增加公司的税后收益。取得降低公司整体税负的效果。     

Capital account flows,consumption ratios and the middle‐income trap

The existing literature suggests that it is important to understand the factors that may slow the transition of an economy from middle to high income. Many factors have been suggested as promoting or retarding economic growth, but little attention has been paid to the roles of the capital account and consumption ratio. Using panel regressions involving 48 countries over the 1950–2013 period as well as employing extreme bounds analysis, we find that foreign investment outflows are associated with a mature economy and that there is an optimal consumption ratio that must be surpassed to break out of middle‐income status. These findings are robust to an extreme bounds analysis incorporating a wide range of variables potentially related to growth performance.     

Can Bitcoin become money? The monetary rule problem

The growing literature on Bitcoin can be divided into two groups. One performs an economic analysis of Bitcoin focusing on its monetary characteristics. The other one takes a financial look at the price of Bitcoin. Interestingly, both of these groups have not given much more than passing comments to the problem of whether or not Bitcoin has the right monetary rule in order to become a well‐established currency. This paper argues that Bitcoin in particular, and cryptocurrencies in general, do not have a good monetary rule and that this shortcoming seriously limits its prospect of becoming widely used money.     

Modeling and Extrapolating Wheat Producer Support Using Income and Other Factors

Using wheat market support data from 55 countries for 1961–2011 from the World Bank Agricultural Distortion database, we develop a fixed effect model that shows a more complicated, nonlinear relationship between income and wheat support and its components than previously realised. We find that income generally has a greater effect on border market price support than on domestic price support. Moreover, the difference between these types of support is greater for net importers than for net exporters and has increased with the URAA or WTO accession. Holding other variables constant, the wheat support level of China, driven mainly by border market price support, is projected to rise with future income growth. Meanwhile, Japan is projected to maintain its high level of support, while the US and EU are projected to maintain their lower levels of support. These results are relevant in the context of multilateral trade negotiations, arguing against a narrow focus on past or current policy profiles and for long‐run analyses that might mistakenly rest on the inconsistent assumptions of constant agricultural policies against the backdrop of rising incomes.     

习惯形成、收入阶层异质性与我国城镇居民消费行为研究

习惯形成是居民消费变化的一个基本特征，收入阶层异质性是居民禀赋差异的主要体现，本文旨在结合两者探究我国城镇居民的消费行为，以探寻扩大居民消费的方法。基于阶层消费函数理论，运用收入阶层面板SUR的结果显示，居民消费具有显著的习惯形成特征，消费行为呈现异质性，表现为低收入居民的消费习惯较弱、消费倾向较高，中等收入居民的习惯较强、消费较谨慎，高收入居民的习惯较强、地位性消费较活跃。当前“金字塔”形的收入分布、不断扩大但谨慎的中等收入居民、地位性消费的外流抑制了城镇居民消费的扩大，居民消费的相对不足主要是结构性问题。应依据各阶层消费的特点，从供给侧出发构建长效机制，促进低收入居民的收入平稳增长，多方面减弱中等收入居民的谨慎性，并提升国内消费品的质量和档次。     

产业转型、就业结构调整与收入分配

本文通过对比中国非农就业的行业分布和收入增长1995—2013年期间四个时间点上的情况，用布朗分解方法分析了收入增长的原因，重点考察了行业分布变化所代表的产业结构调整对收入增长的贡献作用。研究结果表明，中国劳动收入增长的主要原因是市场化改革所带来的收入机制的完善，低技能劳动力的大量供给使中国产业结构向低技能低收入的方向倾斜发展，这不利于整体收入的增长和分配。近年来产业转型对收入增长的贡献作用开始加强，这会成为新时期中国劳动收入的新增长点。